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Monarch Watch. 2 November 2. While Ries, et al.

Badgett and Davis (2. Peninsula Point and the overwintering population to be the result of mortality incurred during the migratory journey”. Similarly, from Inamine, et al. Reviewers of these manuscripts and editors of the respective journals should have challenged these unsupported statements, particularly since this speculation is used in the papers by Badgett and Davis (2. Inamine et al. Decisions with regard to monarch conservation should be based on data and not on unsupported speculation.

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This brings us to the question: Are there data that support or refute the supposition that mortality during the migration has increased over the last decade? Watch Goodbye To All That Online Iflix on this page. Our tagging data are relevant to this question.

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Because this text is written as a blog article, we will start with a brief summary of the results followed by a discussion. The sections that follow include background information on the tagging program along with a discussion of the dynamics of tag recovery and a section dealing with the analysis. For those interested in a quick read, we suggest reading the summary together with a scan of Figures 1- 3.

This text is being rewritten for publication. Summary. The following analysis is based on tags applied to the wings of over 1. A significant positive association exists between the numbers of monarchs tagged each fall and the sizes of the subsequent overwintering populations (Figure 1).

The tagging represents both a broad sampling area and an extended time period and, as such, is a more realistic measure of the population than population estimates obtained at peninsulas and regionally- limited butterfly counts. The migratory population is tagged over much of the area east of the Rockies (Figure 2). Tagging is conducted annually for a 2. Mexico. 2) The data from 1. Figure 3). 3) Some of the possible factors influencing variability in the tag recovery rate among years are: Higher or lower numbers surviving the migration. Higher or lower mortality during the winter months.

Accessibility of the searchers to the dead monarchs. Higher and lower off- site mortality. The effect of high or low density understory on recovery rates. Number of people searching for tags.

The tagging data are strongly correlated with the number of hectares of overwintering monarchs. This relationship establishes that there is no “disconnect” between late summer and overwintering populations. In contrast, the data sets used by Badgett and Davis (2. Inamine, et al., (2.

Ries, et al., (2. Peninsula Point, MI) and regionally- limited butterfly counts (OH and IL), are not correlated with overwintering numbers. Given the tagging results, it’s clear that the data sets used by these authors are inadequate measures of the late summer and migratory monarch populations. It follows that the conclusions, and speculations, based on these data are unjustified. Figure 1. Number of monarchs tagged each year vs. R2 = 0. 5. 47. 6, p = 0.

Figure 2. Distribution of > 2. Figure 3. Proportion of tags recovered by year, 1. R2 = 0. 0. 02, p = 0. NS)Discussion. The data sets and analysis used by Badgett and Davis (2. Inamine, et al. Failure to find the expected connection led the authors of both papers to speculate that the reason for the decline had to lie with increasing mortality during the migration.

No data were offered in either paper in support of this speculation. The idea that mortality has increased during the period of the decline, roughly from 2. The numbers of monarchs tagged each year are strongly correlated with the size of the overwintering populations, R. These data constitute direct evidence that the size of the late summer monarch population is related to the size of the overwintering population. In contrast to data cited by Badgett and Davis (2. Peninsula Point, a relatively small source area representing western Ontario and the Upper Peninsula of MI and the NABA summer butterfly counts from Ohio and Illinois analyzed by Inamine et al., (2. Ries, et al., (2.

Rockies as the monarch migration progresses southward over a 2. August to November (Figure 2). In this analysis we’ve made a distinction between the total number of tags recovered from those tagged in a given year and the rate (percentage/proportion) of recovery of all tags applied in a given year, the latter being the total recovered divided by the total number tagged. The total recoveries are positively related to the total hectares of monarchs reported in each year as well as the total area occupied by monarchs at El Rosario. This result is expected since recovery is likely a function of the proximity of tagged monarchs to a population of searchers.

Analysis of the rates of recovery of tags shows that there was no significant change in the rate of recovery from 1. Figure 3). This result indicates that mortality during the migration has not increased over the last 1. Given the lack of evidence of an increase in mortality during the migration, the question becomes: How can we account for the so- called disconnect between the data from Peninsula Point (Badgett and Davis, 2. NABA butterfly counts (Inamine, et al. Ries, et al. 2. 01. Mexico? The authors in each case accepted the respective data bases as representative of the larger population in spite of a substantial body of evidence defining the loss of milkweeds in row crops and the loss of milkweed- containing habitat in the Upper Midwest, the area known to produce most of the monarchs that reach Mexico, as the major causes of the monarch decline (Faber, S., et al., 2. Flockhart D. T., et.

Hartzler, R. 2. 01. Lark, T. J., et al., 2.

Pleasants, J. 2. 01. Wassenaar, L. 1. 99. Wright, C. Wouldn’t it be wiser to reverse the questions in each case and ask why the Peninsula Point and NABA data are out of sync with the larger data sets on monarchs, milkweeds and habitat loss, since the data representing these factors are strongly correlated with the size of the overwintering population in Mexico? The expectation that population counts on peninsulas or from specific regions of the breeding range should correlate with the overwintering numbers in Mexico rests on the assumption that the conditions that lead to the establishment and development of the breeding population each year are uniform for all regions of the country. That assumption simply isn’t true. Recolonization and climate vary sufficiently across the breeding range within and among years to account for the so- called disconnect between population assessments from limited areas and the overwintering numbers (Saunders, et al.

Stated another way, the timing of colonization across the northern breeding range and the biotic and physical factors the growing populations experience result in regional differences in the production of monarchs. We need to integrate these regional differences in population development to fully understand the year to year numbers in the fall migration.

Further, we need to know the relative contribution of monarchs originating in each region to the overwintering population. Watch Per Un Pugno Di Dollari Online. The tagging data speak to that point as well but that will come later. The interpretations of the data sets used by these authors have already been challenged (Brower, et al., 2. Pleasants, et al., 2. The results of the tagging analysis lend support to the views articulated in these earlier papers that the data from peninsulas (Badgett and Davis, 2. Davis, A. 2. 01. 1,) and regionally- limited butterfly counts (Inamine et al., 2. Ries et al., 2. 01.

Background. Each year we issue monarch tagging kits to taggers broadly distributed east of the Rockies. The distribution of those receiving tags in 2. Figure 2. Taggers are asked to return their data sheets. The date, location and person tagging each butterfly is logged into a database. Creating the database is a significant task since we receive 2. Each tag bears an individual code and the codes are carefully matched to the tagger and the data on returned data sheets.